5/27/2010: U.S. Open Cup Qualifying Analysis After 3 Qualifying Games

After the Dutch Lions vs. Indiana Invaders uninspiring 0-0 draw last night, the Dutch Lions are still in the top position to qualify as they're the only American squad in the Great Lakes Division that is still currently undefeated. They're also co-leading on goal differential with the Michigan Bucks (+4) and are two goals in front of the Chicago Fire (+2). If the Dutch Lions win this Saturday in Kalamazoo then their in with 10 points. However, if the Dutch Lions tie or lose against bottom of the table Kalamazoo this Saturday then the scenario gets much more dicey.

If the Dutch Lions tie in Kalamazoo, they would finish the four qualifying games with 8 points. There are only two other teams that can beat that mark in the Chicago Fire and Michigan Bucks who both have a possibility with a win in their last game to gain 9 points total. The Indiana Invaders tie last night eliminated them from contention for the most part (as despite the above, now the Invaders can only gain a total of 7 points). For the other two teams with an outside shot, the Michigan Bucks play their last game against the tricky Cincinnati Kings who have tied the Dutch Lions and defeated the Chicago Fire PDL team in Chicago; while the Chicago Fire wrap up the qualifiers against the Cleveland Internationals. Both the Bucks and the Fire will be the favorites in those games. Therefore, the Dutch Lions need to concentrate on wrapping up the qualifying schedule with a victory in Kalamazoo.

But, if the Dutch Lions do tie, then with a victory the Bucks or the Fire will surpass them. However, if either of those two teams tie or loses, and we tie then the Dutch Lions will be in. The Bucks will be at home against the Kings; while the Fire have a long away trip to Cleveland.

If the Dutch Lions lose to Kalamazoo then they'll finish with 7 points and will need a lot of help from the Cincinnati Kings and Cleveland Internationals, namely victories from those two sides against the Bucks and Fire respectively. But, if the Dutch Lions lose and both the Bucks and the Fire tie then the Bucks would get in at a +4 goal differential compared to a +3 (or however many goals the Dutch Lions would get beat in a loss).

Overall, the chances of both favorites, Bucks and the Fire, both losing or tying probably isn't that good. There is a chance that one of them can have a result similiar to the result the Chicago Fire had at home against the Cincinnati Kings but both is stretching it. And, if one of those two teams gets a win this weekend and the Dutch Lions tie or lose then the Lions will be surpassed for the Open Cup spot.

So in conclusion the Dutch Lions just got to win. As any dropped points against bottom of the table Kalamazoo will make it difficult for the Lions to fault anyone but themselves for not getting in.